EA - Main paths to impact in EU AI Policy by JOMG Monnet

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Main paths to impact in EU AI Policy, published by JOMG Monnet on December 8, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum.Epistemic statusThis is a tentative overview of the current main paths to impact in EU AI Policy. There is significant uncertainty regarding the relative impact of the different paths belowThe paths mentioned below were cross-checked with four experts working in the field, but the list is probably not exhaustiveAdditionally, this post may also be of interest to those interested in working in EU AI Policy. In particular, consider the arguments against impact hereThis article doesn’t compare the potential value of US AI policy careers with those in the EU for people with EU-citizenship. A comparison between the two options is beyond the scope of this postSummaryPeople seeking to have a positive impact on the direction of AI policy in the EU may consider the following paths to impact:Working on (enforcement of) the AI Act, related AI technical standards and adjacent regulationWorking on the current AI Act draft (possibility to have impact immediately)Working on technical standards and auditing services of the AI Act (possibility to have impact immediately)Making sure the EU AI Act is enforced effectively (possibility to have impact now and >1/2 years from now)Working on a revision of the AI Act (possibility to have impact >5 years from now), or on (potential) new AI-related regulation (e.g. possibility to have impact now through the AI Liability Directive)Working on export controls and using the EU’s soft power (possibility to have immediate + longer term impact)Using career capital gained from a career in EU AI Policy to work on different policy topics or in the private sectorWhile the majority of impact for some paths above is expected to be realised in the medium/long term, building up career capital is probably a prerequisite for making impact in these paths later on. It is advisable to create your own personal “theory of change” for working in the field. The list of paths to impact below is not exhaustive and individuals should do their own research into different paths and speak to multiple experts.Paths to impactWorking on (enforcement of) the AI Act, related AI technical standards and adjacent regulationSince the EU generally lacks cutting edge developers of AI systems, the largest expected impact from the EU AI Act is expected to follow from a Brussels effect of sorts. For the AI act to have a positive effect on the likelihood of safe, advanced AI systems being developed within organisations outside of the EU, the following assumptions need to be true:Advanced AI systems are (also) being developed within private AI labs that (plan to) export products to EU citizens.The AI-developing activities within private AI labs need to be influenced by the EU AI Act through a Brussels Effect of some sort (de facto or de jure). This depends on whether advanced AI is developed within a product development process in which AI-companies take EU AI Act regulation into account.Requirements on these companies either have a (1) slowing effect on advanced AI development, buying more time for technical safety research or better regulation within the countries where AI is developed (2) direct effect, e.g. through risk management requirements that increase the odds of safe AI developmentWorking on the final draft of the AI ActCurrent status of AI ActThe AI Act is a proposed European law on artificial intelligence (AI) – the first law on AI by a major regulator anywhere. On April 21, 2021 the Commission published a proposal to regulate artificial intelligence in the European Union. The proposal of the EU AI Act will become law once both the Council (representing the 27 EU Member States) and the European Parliament agree on a common version of the te...